“There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.”

— Paul Tudor Jones

Paul Tudor Jones needs no introduction.

A brief, must-watch video of his CNBC interview this week: [LINK]

Partial Transcript:

PTJ: If I had to pick a period, we’ve got another year or two to run. And that’s my second favorite one, which is again we continue to feel like ‘99. If you look at multiples and earnings, we’re kind of where we were in October-November 1999. Whether you’re looking at the productivity miracle, and you want to look at it that way, where we’ve got another two years to run and 40% to go, or price analogs feel more like we’re back to fourth quarter ‘99, you’ve got another ramp to go. You got more runway.

Becky: What happens after that?

PTJ: It’s going to be crazy.

Paul’s comments share many similarities with our core framework:

Today, we’ll present a series of special charts — continuing our work on the BIG Market Cycle.

Where is the market heading?

We uncover FASCINATING analogs and historic parallels, including some new ideas picked up from PTJ this week…

There’s no training for this kind of market.

I think Paul is right — it’s going to get crazy.

In some ways, it already is.

So let’s look through history and our signals…

And let’s build a framework for what could be ahead.

Read more

No one is prepared for what’s next — so let’s prepare.

Everything is coming together into this moment.

Get ready…

(*If you’re new to our work, this report could set the tone for everything that’s coming ahead. Take a look… it will be worth your time.)

Read more

Good morning.

Markets are at an important juncture, and showing initial reactions.

Signals are fully aligned — and now in motion:

PORTFOLIO UPDATE

TOP PRIORITIES & OBJECTIVES:

Read more

Good morning.

A critical day ahead:

The Fed will announce its latest decision & analysis.

Megacap Tech stocks AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT report after the close. How they guide expectations regarding CAPEX will be key to market momentum.

Everything is coming together into this one moment.

Already, key markets & signals are aligning as discussed — and we are watching these very closely:

Read more

We have a LOT of important data to discuss today…

Let’s get right into it:

✅ I think this week will be THE most critical juncture of the year.

✅ Everything is coming together into this ONE moment.

✅ Some extremely compelling signals are building.

Time to “Go Big or Go Home”.

(*If you’re new to our work, this report could set the tone for everything that’s coming ahead. Take a look… it will be worth your time.)

Read more

A week for the history books:

✅ “Since 1928, this is the first time the S&P has made new all-time highs in 11 days or fewer after falling 5-10%.” (Bespoke Investment Group).

✅ “One of the most powerful rallies since World War II.” (Bloomberg)

✅ Stocks took just 11 days to spike from oversold to overbought — the second fastest rally in history, only surpassed by August 1982:

One of the most powerful moves in history:

Since bottoming 13 days ago, the NASDAQ has rallied +18%:

In the NASDAQ’s 55-year history, this strength was extremely rare:

✅ It launched four Bear Market rallies in 2000-2001.

✅ It launched seven Major Bull Markets, and one Bull Market extension:

• 1974 Major Bull Market

• 1982 Major Bull Market

• 1991 Major Bull Market

• 1992 Bull Market extension

• 1998 Major Bull Market

• 2002 Major Bull Market

• 2009 Major Bull Market

• 2020 Major Bull Market

What will history say, if we look back 12-24 months from now?

Are you ready for all possibilities?

On the initial ceasefire announcement, we discussed “the HARD trade”:

Scanning big accounts on X last night, we noticed a chorus of experts saying the ceasefire will fail, the two sides are too far apart, the technicalities of reopening will be difficult to navigate.

These opinions show knee-jerk bearishness — and make me think the HARD TRADE here is to listen to the market, and let it decide where it wants to go. (“When all the experts agree, something else is going to happen.”)

Old subscribers will recall this is how we approached the post-April 2025 recovery — we rolled up our sleeves and looked for opportunities. Damn the torpedoes…

This is the hardest trade to make here.

Maybe it’s the right move.

Did anyone think stocks would be at all-time highs in 11 days?

No, and THIS IS WHY we follow price.

“Have a plan, and follow it — always.”

In today’s report:

✅ What are markets saying — and what could be ahead?

✅ Evaluating potential trajectories, and what we know so far.

✅ Froth is returning — time for a pullback?

As always:

Listen to what stocks are doing, not what pundits think they should be doing.

Have an *actionable* investment plan, and work on it daily.

Onwards and upwards — have a nice weekend.

Good luck to all this week.

Read more

“Roads? Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.”

Read more

In the last Core Framework series:

✅ We covered major themes for 2026: Equities, Commodities, Rates, and the Dollar.

✅ We saw value in OIL & ENERGY, the potential for a DOLLAR recovery, and a risky setup for PRECIOUS METALS and BONDS.

✅ Looking back, our views were directionally correct — and some went a lot more than expected (Commodities especially).

Overall, a solid start to the year…

It’s time to update the big picture again:

Putting new ideas in motion, and looking for the next big move.

In this report:

This was an important week for markets.

✅ Publishing our new CORE FRAMEWORK UPDATE, with Macro analysis and medium-term opportunities/risks to consider.

✅ Planting seeds for what may be the *next* big investment ideas of the year.

Let’s look into:

✅ What are markets pricing today?

✅ What could they look like in 6-12 months?

✅ How can we “skate to where the puck will be”?

Onwards and upwards — have a nice weekend.

Let’s get started:

Read more

Honored to have been invited “back-to-school” with Jeremy Schwartz, Global CIO at WisdomTree Funds, and Wharton Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel.

Always a pleasure to chat and exchange notes!

We covered big ideas: global markets, “skating to where the puck will be”, and a broad range of investing topics…

Links below — Enjoy, and have a good weekend!

Behind the Markets Podcast:

Spotify

Apple

Thanks for reading.

Onwards and upwards, -MC

Share

We publish 100+ reports a year for paid subscribers. Focus is on BIG trends, actionable ideas, and execution.

✅ ABOUT: macrocharts.com/about.

✅ Follow on X: @MacroCharts.

Copyright © 2026 Macro Charts Substack. All rights reserved.

This proprietary publication is protected by U.S. and International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No license is granted, except for the subscriber’s personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied, downloaded, transmitted, reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form or by any means, except with the prior written permission of Macro Charts Substack. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this publication, message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized.

This publication contains statements and statistics that have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. References to any specific securities or investment advice of any kind do not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. The past performance of an investment or investment strategy cannot guarantee its future performance. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the subscriber. Inclusion of information about portfolio changes and other information is not intended as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation.

MARKET UPDATE / QUICK COMMENTS:

Good morning.

Updated signals & plan:

OIL & ENERGY

Oil:

✅ Yesterday WTI Crude Oil fell 16%, one of its biggest single-day declines in history, and the biggest since 2020.

✅ Since the inception of futures trading, there were only two periods where WTI dropped this much from near a multi-year high: October 1990 (-16%) and March 2022 (-12%). In both cases Oil was rolling down from a major top. In 1990 Oil bounced for a few days to fill an upside gap, then rolled over and collapsed. In 2022 Oil fell another 15%, then traded in a topping range which ultimately collapsed.

Energy stocks / what we’re watching:

Read more

Good morning.

Following new and important market developments, our updated signals & plan:

Read more

In today’s report:

Have Stocks Bottomed?

• Oversold bounce — or something BIGGER?

• Evaluating the NEXT BIG MOVE.

Know where you are in the cycle:

• “Know yourself, and what to look for” — have a plan to execute in all conditions.

• Preparing for next week: my updated plan at this critical moment.

• Always remember: experience to understand what’s happening, paired with the discipline to execute under extreme conditions, is what sets true winners apart — especially in rough times. Stay focused, and good luck to all next week.

Read more

Good morning.

*Quick update on positions before we begin:

Read more

On Tuesday morning I wrote:

Market feels extremely fragile, Tech/MAG7 especially, as discussed in Sunday’s chart run.

Most are on the verge of an accelerated move lower (rollovers complete).

By Friday, acceleration was clear:

Selloffs are broadening…

Where are we in the corrective cycle?

Panic is beginning to take hold.

For most of March, investors were in a cognitive dissonance bubble:

Now, the bubble has met its pin…

Published in our March 4 report:

Typically, choppy market declines end with a “rip off the band-aid” moment.

The ideal sequence would be: first the market wears everyone out, then at the end, triggers a panic — forming the bottom.

Panics typically last […], and are strong Buy opportunities.

By the time the bottom appears, no one wants to buy anymore — because the market broke everyone first, and news at the bottom is max-bearish.

This has been a classic corrective cycle.

Sellers have broken every market in sequence.

“No stone left unturned.”

How much further could this go?

In today’s report:

What Acceleration Looks Like.

• Week after week, the weight of the evidence showed risks were increasing. “Slowly, then all at once.”

• Preparing for next week: my updated plan at this critical moment.

• Always remember: experience to understand what’s happening, paired with the discipline to execute under extreme conditions, is what sets true winners apart — especially in rough times. Stay focused — and good luck to all next week.

Read more

The best opportunities are extremely rare.

What’s your plan here:

1. WHEN do you Buy?

2. WHAT do you Buy?

Markets give one moment to react, and then it’s gone.

This is a major opportunity on our radar…

Are you ready?

Let’s begin:

Read more

Something important happened this week:

Markets looked into the abyss, and some broke.

Bonds and Metals are plunging in sequence, threatening to get unhinged.

What’s next?

Looking through the data this week, the message rang clear…

Surprisingly: it reminded me of 2025, when everything was working.

Markets are “loud and clear”:

Last year, for most of the market rally, and especially from May-October, we ran a series of Special Reports.

In those reports, we revisited the idea of “No Stone Left Unturned”.

(Old readers will remember this well…)

For that entire rally, we came in every day with a clean notepad, looking for new opportunities, flagging ETFs and stocks that were “ready to join the rally”.

We would find an ETF or stock that was ready to rally, and within a few hours/days it was up 10-20%.

The market was loud and clear: “follow the money, keep looking for ideas, stay focused”.

Every step of the way, we noted:

“Buyers are out there, looking for good stocks at good prices, leaving no stone left unturned.”

Market conditions were transparent — buyers were responding, consistently showing up every day.

One of the most important strengths we can have as investors is to listen to the market, especially when it sends a strong message like this.

Last year was an invaluable lesson in listening.

“How does this apply to 2026 — this market stinks!”

Well:

Since February, we’ve been gradually getting more cautious.

Every week, markets have continued to weaken, little by little.

Every week, more ETFs and stocks rolled over.

Last week we were cautious, and ended the week with more concerns.

Same thing happened this week.

Listening to the market, we’ve been fortunate to stay ahead of the tape — and sidestepped a lot of volatility:

1. We talked about the topping structure in Tech, which included widespread negative reactions to good news (earnings beats). The market was saying: “get ready”.

2. We talked about ETFs and stocks rolling over in sequence (ARKK for instance). Now some have started to break down.

3. Long before this crisis even began, we talked about the risk of a Dollar rally, and EURUSD being one of the most vulnerable currencies in the world. It still is.

4. We talked about a top in Precious Metals in January, also long before this war broke out. We warned as they rolled over again this week, and the next day they plunged. Copper and industrial metals too.

Now what?

No Stone Left Unturned — 2026 edition

Buyers did not hesitate in 2025, and Sellers are not hesitating today.

In the last two weeks:

ANY asset which got in position to roll over, was sold immediately the next few hours/days.

Sellers are “out there”, looking for good exits, taking them without hesitation, and leaving no stone left unturned…

They came after every market in sequence, so far.

And after this week’s reactions, new markets may be starting to break.

Our job in 2026 is the same:

Show up to work every day with a clean notepad, look for potential new signals, and track IF and HOW the market is responding.

The market’s response so far: “follow the money, keep looking for defense, lose the least amount possible, and be mentally and financially ready on the other side”.

What’s next?

1. We are monitoring markets which could break next. And more importantly, how the tape responds.

2. We’ll cover new risk areas which MAY be ready to join the global decline — and IF sellers come in next week, then the defensive message will be reinforced yet again.

Bull or Bear, we will listen to the tape.

This trend will continue until it stops, and the MARKET will tell us when.

No opinion or emotions. Follow the tape, and survive / be ready for when this is over.

In today’s report:

• Week after week, the weight of the evidence showed risks were increasing. “Slowly, then all at once.”

• Preparing for next week: this report will update my plan at this critical moment.

• We continue to hold elevated cash balances, looking for an opportunity to make a significant move.

• Always remember: experience to understand what’s happening, paired with the discipline to execute under extreme conditions, is what sets true winners apart — especially in rough times. Stay focused — and good luck to all next week.

Read more

Happy Friday, hope everyone had a nice week.

Ahead of the weekend and upcoming report:

✅ I want to organize our ideas into a new, enhanced signal framework.

✅ These are moments where having a clear foundation makes all the difference.

✅ After weeks of study and preparation, I think a path is opening.

We have a lot to cover today—

Let’s get right to it:

Read more

Good morning.

Looking at broader Sentiment and Flows—

Let’s evaluate where the current market cycle stands:

Read more

In this report:

✅ “Break Them All.” — *Looking at High-Priority signals*

✅ Complete commentary and Key Charts to watch.

✅ Clear ACTIONABLE plan and scenarios.

Good luck to everyone this week.

Read more

Good morning.

Hope everyone had a nice week despite all the volatility.

These are extremely challenging market conditions, make no mistake—

It hasn’t been easy, but we continue to hold defensively for now, and waiting for the dust to settle.

Thursday was a good outperformance day, with the equity book up nearly +3% (including hedges), and SPY down -1.5%.

Energy and Chemicals remain a key portfolio pillar, which goes to show the power of following trends and signals.

Critically, momentum still looks strong in these groups, and some stocks look like they’re just beginning to join the rally.

I’m extremely proud of the hard work we’ve done so far.

March has been the outcome of many incremental “smart” decisions:

1. We protected YTD gains throughout this period, sidestepping most of the current market volatility.

2. This week’s moves pushed the portfolio to a new YTD high, now in high double-digit return (Thursday’s close).

3. The maximum YTD drawdown was 3% so far, a solid return-to-risk ratio to start the year.

4. Portfolio beta and realized volatility remain extremely low, and we continue to wait to deploy cash into new opportunities. I think we’ll see many soon.

There’s a LOT of hard work to be done in the next few days:

We need to stay *laser-focused* on how this volatility ends, and when to get constructive again.

I think experience and patience can truly shine here.

When the turn comes, I want to be ready.

Good luck out there — and have a nice weekend.

In this report:

✅ Thoughts & Commentary on Market Conditions.

✅ Updated ACTIONABLE Plan.

✅ Main Signals we’re Watching.

Let’s begin:

Read more