What a week, month, and year it’s been…

2026 has produced some of the toughest, most extreme market conditions anyone has ever seen:

✅ Closing the book on July’s historic momentum crash:

• Having spent two grueling months sharing my thoughts on *RISK* management, and avoiding crowded themes — then watching as some of our Core themes/positions went UP during July’s momentum crash, overall I’m proud of the hard work we’ve done, and what we were able to achieve so far.

✅ This week:

• MSFT posted its best day in 18 years, and its best week in 27 years. The stock was up 25% in July, a strong portfolio addition.

• AMZN posted its best day in 14 years, and its best week in 11 years. The stock was up 14% in July, another solid addition.

✅ Even more important, my Core view is beginning to play out:

• A few companies and groups are beginning to LEAD the “race to ROI” — and earnings results are validating their strategy.

• The market is sending a loud and clear message: AI winners will be rewarded. As will their investors.

This matters more than everything…

Patient investors are quietly winning this year:

As I wrote last month—“The Race is On”:

Momentum chasers could suffer BIG losses, triggering more outflows and deleveraging.

Patient investors focused on holding Quality and Low-volatility stocks could shine.

Who will win this year — the Tortoise or the Hare?

The Race is ON.

Momentum stocks fell 50-70% in July, while high-quality stocks were up 5-25%.

I’ve been in this game long enough to know that it’s a marathon, and 2026 still has an eternity left…

I think August could be an investor’s dream:

• A LOT of positioning is offsides across many key markets.

• History may have quite a few tricks up its sleeve (for those who want to study it).

Lots of work to do — we’re just getting started.

Looking forward to August…

Ready for whatever comes next: with patience, process, and discipline.

Onwards and upwards.

In today’s report:

✅ EVERYTHING IS ABOUT TO CHANGE — A Special Update with NEW Major Signals and Historical Studies.

✅ One of THE most important TACTICAL setups of the year.

✅ Thinking about August(!!)

✅ NEW setups on HIGH-PRIORITY watch.

Have a great week ahead!

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In today’s report:

“EXIT TO THE LEFT.”

Today I want to update on critical new ideas, including:

Extreme positioning, Sentiment, Oil(!), Rates on the EDGE, Volatility, and a confluence of signals I’m getting concerned about.

Plus timely new topics:

✅ Bounce, or breakdown?

✅ A BIG upgrade to our toolkit — and much more to come.

Have a great week ahead!

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In today’s report:

WHAT CAPITULATION LOOKS LIKE…

Today I want to update on more important ideas, including:

The big Momentum Crash, Capitulation signals, Flows, Sentiment, Rates(!), Oil, Volatility, and a NEW Sector Long which reinforces the diversification strategy—and may be turning up from a big bottom.

Plus some timely new topics:

✅ NO PAIN NO GAIN.

✅ Near-term bounce: locked & loaded, or fake news?

✅ Tactical opportunities on watch.

Have a great week ahead!

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Tavi is a widely-followed Global Macro strategist and Fund Manager with a long history on X.

I enjoy reading his work on Substack, and recommend subscribing to his publication:

tavicosta.substack.com

When Tavi’s strategic approach and my work are aligned, I’ve found it to be at moments of big opportunity.

This might be one of those moments…

We cover some of the most important ideas we’re watching:

✅ Plus what they mean for asset allocation today, and opportunities/risks.

✅ I think these are massive themes that could dominate the rest of 2026...

Hope you enjoy!

Onwards and upwards, -MC

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In today’s report:

JULY AND Q3 ARE UNDERWAY…

Today I want to update on many important themes, including:

Semiconductors, Factors(!!), Sentiment, MAG7, China Tech, Metals, our TOP FX setup, and a new Thematic Long that could be a valuable addition to diversified portfolios.

PLUS some critical new topics:

✅ Institutional investors are CAPITULATING — what does HISTORY say?

✅ A *Rare* Signal: what it means for asset allocation today, and important charts showing *correlated* risks.

These are massive themes that could dominate the rest of 2026…

Have a great week ahead!

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“Don’t start the week without it…”

In today’s report:

JULY AND Q3 UNDERWAY!

Big moves right out of the gate…

We’re laser-focused on what looks like a major opportunity building across asset classes and global markets:

✅ The Great Reversal may have begun: what this means for global portfolios, opportunities, and risks.

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE on an important NEW Macro trade idea.

✅ This is shaping up to be one of the most important moments of the year.

The opportunity set is wide open…

Have a great week ahead!

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Good morning.

Today I want to update on several important themes, including:

Tech, Semiconductors, MAG7, Precious Metals, Yen, Seasonality, and a new theme that’s still under the radar and showing excellent potential.

Have a great day ahead!

Let’s get started:

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“Don’t start the week without it…”

In today’s report:

✅ The Great Reversal — and the big wave still ahead.

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE ON METALS.

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE ON TECH.

✅ For long-term investors: we’ll show the signals and risks to watch here & now. (Focusing on critical data — no opinions.)

✅ For portfolio managers and traders: we’ll discuss high-priority timing signals.

Have a great week ahead!

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Good morning.

On high alert for a major opportunity.

All eyes on the prize…

Let’s begin:

TIME FOR A BOTTOM

This is a picture-perfect Time AND Price alignment, offering

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Good morning.

Big moves overnight — a lot of important news to discuss:

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“Don’t start the week without it…”

Two special updates today.

In today’s report:

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE ON GOLD (PART II).

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE ON SEMICONDUCTORS.

✅ For long-term investors: we’ll show the signals and risks to watch here & now. (Focusing on critical data — no opinions.)

✅ For portfolio managers and traders: we’ll discuss high-priority timing signals.

Have a great week ahead!

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This may be the most critical moment for Gold in 2026…

In today’s report:

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE ON GOLD.

✅ Global markets at a major decision point: signals IN MOTION.

✅ My actionable plan — preparing for key scenarios ahead.

✅ For long-term investors: we’ll show the signals and risks to watch here & now. (Focusing on critical data, no opinions.)

✅ For portfolio managers and traders: we’ll discuss high-priority timing signals.

Have a great week ahead!

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Happy Friday.

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Good morning.

Last week I wrote:

We are working with the following scenario:

A standard 9-12% correction in the S&P to test multiple support targets (chart below).

QQQ would target a 16-22% decline (second chart below).

SOX would target a 30-40% decline (third chart below).

A week later:

❌ This is one of the fastest plunges from an ATH ever.

❌ Extreme moves in “bottleneck” stories are more evidence of the major instability we warned about.

❌ Sentiment was extremely complacent. So much so that when the market first cracked, few took it seriously, and social media posts were giggling at “prices not seen since last week”…

❌ As a result: the market gods have now taken back almost a month of S&P performance (nearly all of May).

Maybe worst of all:

❌ The AVERAGE High-Beta stock (typically trafficked on financial Twitter) has given back HALF the rally from March. Pick any — Drones, Robotics, Quantum, ARKK, all taken to the woodshed.

All this from a *5%* dip in S&P.

As we’ve been saying: know what you own.

Peak to trough:

S&P down -5%, NDX -8%, SOX -16% — in a week.

(*Note the major indexes are *exactly* halfway to our ideal targets.)

So the question is:

✅ How could this play out?

✅ What are the potential paths?

✅ What is the risk-reward equation right now?

Most importantly:

✅ What do you BUY on the other side?

The answers are appearing…

Let’s begin planting the seeds today.

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May 31:

AI “bottleneck” plays are extremely vulnerable. Some are starting to show weakness.

Positions are so crowded and correlated, that any loss of momentum could trigger a cascade.

Buying the first dip or staying overweight AI-correlated stocks would NOT be optimal.

Initial cracks appeared last week.

The volatility profile was quietly shifting.

This week was the chain-reaction.

In today’s report:

✅ The historical projection for an important market Top looks to be confirmed.

✅ Stocks collapsed this week, marking a potential major turning point.

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE: The Last Stop for SOX — PART 3.

✅ What’s the roadmap? Looking through history: an important pattern emerges.

Have a great week ahead!

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In today’s report:

✅ A decisive week for markets.

✅ Is this a MAJOR turn in stocks?

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE: The Last Stop for SOX — PART 2.

✅ A phenomenal contrarian opportunity.

✅ Five Star Setups, with BEST ideas and setups for the week ahead.

Plus a review of last week’s top ideas — how did they do, and what does it say about the market?

Have a great week!

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This is a special high-priority report (*PART 1 of a series).

We are 100% focused on this theme in the coming days.

The time has come to put this on paper…

This may be the most critical moment for Tech Stocks in 2026.

In today’s report:

✅ We’ll show you everything we’re looking at, so you can judge for yourself how unique this moment could be.

Additionally, we’ll discuss:

✅ My OWN specific & actionable plan — and how I’m preparing for key scenarios ahead.

✅ For long-term Bulls: this series will discuss the signals and risks to watch here & now. (Focusing on critical data, not opinions.)

✅ For portfolio managers and traders: this series will also discuss optimal risk-management, and high-priority timing signals.

Let’s begin:

PORTFOLIO CHANGES

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A truly unique time for human progress.

We are witnessing history…

What’s next for markets?

In today’s report:

✅ Flows hold the key — if they turn, *everything* changes.

✅ The catalysts look… increasingly clear.

✅ “TO THE MOON”:

✅ Introducing a NEW Top Charts series, with BEST ideas and setups for the week ahead.

✅ Some BIG opportunities on our radar.

Have a great week!

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The #1 rule of markets:

✅ Price makes the news.

✅ First the market runs, THEN come the storytellers.

✅ The bigger the move… the bigger the story.

After a historic April rally… the calendar flipped to May, and right on cue, some extreme narratives are on full display.

The one to rule them all:

“It’s still early.”

In this report…

✅ Let’s talk about the price paths from here.

✅ As promised: our Top candidate basket for a key theme we’ve been studying.

✅ This theme is so important that it merits a separate, dedicated report.

Have a nice day ahead!

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