Good morning.

Big moves overnight — a lot of important news to discuss:

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“Don’t start the week without it…”

Two special updates today.

In today’s report:

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE ON GOLD (PART II).

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE ON SEMICONDUCTORS.

✅ For long-term investors: we’ll show the signals and risks to watch here & now. (Focusing on critical data — no opinions.)

✅ For portfolio managers and traders: we’ll discuss high-priority timing signals.

Have a great week ahead!

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Good morning and Happy Friday.

U.S. markets are closed today, so I want to get a quick note out ahead of the long weekend:

THOUGHTS ON THE FED

Following this week’s FOMC meeting, a lot of people on social media have been posting opinions regarding Fed chair Warsh’s first press conference.

Avoiding the noise, I’ve been quietly watching markets, and comparing the hot takes being circulated — particularly on X.

It hasn’t even been 48 hours since the FOMC meeting, and most comments have aged like milk on a hot summer day...

The biggest consensus of all: an army of tourists predicting “higher rates volatility” with the new Fed.

Believe it or not, people are making predictions for higher rates volatility in the coming years… based on 1.5 days of market movements.

*Note some of these folks also called for buying S&P Puts at the June lows, and buying long-dated Oil at this year’s highs.

This flash-consensus reveals a market with extremely negative sentiment on Bonds…

Related: the long end is rallying while short-term rates are anchored.

I think this continues, because (1) that’s what trends do, and (2) our models indicated the 10YR Yield likely made a significant turn (this is a big deal, and few investors are prepared for it).

Important to never forget:

Under Powell’s watch, rates volatility was the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Inflation hit 9%, the highest in 40 years.

And the damage could have been entirely avoided:

In mid-2021, I was extremely worried about higher rates and inflation, and began building a portfolio around assets with low/negative rates correlation.

When I posted that tweet in July 2021, the 2YR was at 0.2%:

The 10YR was at 1.25%:

The rest was history.

Looking back today, by nearly every metric, this was the worst-managed Fed of all time.

Surely it will be tough for any new Fed chair to do worse?

Either way — it’s probably best to ignore predictions… on rates volatility, or anything else.

The good news:

At 114 words, this was the shortest (and best) FOMC statement in a long time:

*Chart from Michael Kantro at Piper.

Total number of sentences in this week’s FOMC statement: 8.

Count me as a Kevin fan from the beginning…

Maybe in time he can reduce the statement to just the last sentence:

“The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Works for me.

Big picture:

I think the Fed will end up not hiking this year, after the full range of data is released and incorporated over the next 6+ months. But that’s a topic for another day…

Which leaves us with the main event:

The Dollar vs. Gold.

I’m working on an important update to our SPECIAL REPORT ON GOLD, scheduled for publication soon.

We’ll also touch on Semiconductors, Memory, and related trades which continue to dominate the daily conversation:

Many have asked me “when to Sell/Short”, meanwhile I’ve been watching and waiting for the right moment — and think when it comes, it should be quite clear.

Speaking of which, KOSPI and some individual names may be flagging an interesting setup here.

We’ll go deeper into all the signals in the upcoming report.

See you soon, have a great weekend,

-MC

Thanks for reading.

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This may be the most critical moment for Gold in 2026…

In today’s report:

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE ON GOLD.

✅ Global markets at a major decision point: signals IN MOTION.

✅ My actionable plan — preparing for key scenarios ahead.

✅ For long-term investors: we’ll show the signals and risks to watch here & now. (Focusing on critical data, no opinions.)

✅ For portfolio managers and traders: we’ll discuss high-priority timing signals.

Have a great week ahead!

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Happy Friday.

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Good morning.

Last week I wrote:

We are working with the following scenario:

A standard 9-12% correction in the S&P to test multiple support targets (chart below).

QQQ would target a 16-22% decline (second chart below).

SOX would target a 30-40% decline (third chart below).

A week later:

❌ This is one of the fastest plunges from an ATH ever.

❌ Extreme moves in “bottleneck” stories are more evidence of the major instability we warned about.

❌ Sentiment was extremely complacent. So much so that when the market first cracked, few took it seriously, and social media posts were giggling at “prices not seen since last week”…

❌ As a result: the market gods have now taken back almost a month of S&P performance (nearly all of May).

Maybe worst of all:

❌ The AVERAGE High-Beta stock (typically trafficked on financial Twitter) has given back HALF the rally from March. Pick any — Drones, Robotics, Quantum, ARKK, all taken to the woodshed.

All this from a *5%* dip in S&P.

As we’ve been saying: know what you own.

Peak to trough:

S&P down -5%, NDX -8%, SOX -16% — in a week.

(*Note the major indexes are *exactly* halfway to our ideal targets.)

So the question is:

✅ How could this play out?

✅ What are the potential paths?

✅ What is the risk-reward equation right now?

Most importantly:

✅ What do you BUY on the other side?

The answers are appearing…

Let’s begin planting the seeds today.

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May 31:

AI “bottleneck” plays are extremely vulnerable. Some are starting to show weakness.

Positions are so crowded and correlated, that any loss of momentum could trigger a cascade.

Buying the first dip or staying overweight AI-correlated stocks would NOT be optimal.

Initial cracks appeared last week.

The volatility profile was quietly shifting.

This week was the chain-reaction.

In today’s report:

✅ The historical projection for an important market Top looks to be confirmed.

✅ Stocks collapsed this week, marking a potential major turning point.

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE: The Last Stop for SOX — PART 3.

✅ What’s the roadmap? Looking through history: an important pattern emerges.

Have a great week ahead!

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In today’s report:

✅ A decisive week for markets.

✅ Is this a MAJOR turn in stocks?

✅ SPECIAL UPDATE: The Last Stop for SOX — PART 2.

✅ A phenomenal contrarian opportunity.

✅ Five Star Setups, with BEST ideas and setups for the week ahead.

Plus a review of last week’s top ideas — how did they do, and what does it say about the market?

Have a great week!

Read more

This is a special high-priority report (*PART 1 of a series).

We are 100% focused on this theme in the coming days.

The time has come to put this on paper…

This may be the most critical moment for Tech Stocks in 2026.

In today’s report:

✅ We’ll show you everything we’re looking at, so you can judge for yourself how unique this moment could be.

Additionally, we’ll discuss:

✅ My OWN specific & actionable plan — and how I’m preparing for key scenarios ahead.

✅ For long-term Bulls: this series will discuss the signals and risks to watch here & now. (Focusing on critical data, not opinions.)

✅ For portfolio managers and traders: this series will also discuss optimal risk-management, and high-priority timing signals.

Let’s begin:

PORTFOLIO CHANGES

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A truly unique time for human progress.

We are witnessing history…

What’s next for markets?

In today’s report:

✅ Flows hold the key — if they turn, *everything* changes.

✅ The catalysts look… increasingly clear.

✅ “TO THE MOON”:

✅ Introducing a NEW Top Charts series, with BEST ideas and setups for the week ahead.

✅ Some BIG opportunities on our radar.

Have a great week!

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The #1 rule of markets:

✅ Price makes the news.

✅ First the market runs, THEN come the storytellers.

✅ The bigger the move… the bigger the story.

After a historic April rally… the calendar flipped to May, and right on cue, some extreme narratives are on full display.

The one to rule them all:

“It’s still early.”

In this report…

✅ Let’s talk about the price paths from here.

✅ As promised: our Top candidate basket for a key theme we’ve been studying.

✅ This theme is so important that it merits a separate, dedicated report.

Have a nice day ahead!

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“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.”

— Jesse Livermore

The biggest IPO wave in history is here:

Cerebras Disrupted Chips — and Maybe The Future of IPOs (BBG, May 15)

• Cerebras Systems’ initial public offering was a success, with the stock closing its first day at $311, 159% higher than the initial price point.

• Cerebras has decided to allow share sales based on 11 triggers over the opening six months of trading, with some selling allowed almost immediately, in an effort to manage expectations around new shares hitting the market.

Just as Cerebras is shaking up chip design, it’s also taking a new approach to post-IPO liquidity. Typically, insiders and private investors agree to wait for six months before selling their shares after an IPO. Cerebras, though, has decided to greenlight share sales based on 11 triggers over the opening six months of trading, with some selling allowed almost immediately. Only about 15% of shares outstanding were sold in the offering. Before the six months are out, another 78% of shares will become eligible for sale. Among the sale triggers: first-quarter earnings likely in June, second-quarter earnings, and then a series of dates set two weeks apart starting in late August.

S&P Dow Jones Indices, May 15:

*S&P DJI CITES FAST TRACK IPO ENTRY ON CEREBRAS

*S&P DJI: CEREBRAS ELIGIBLE TO BE ADDED TO INDEXES ON MONDAY

SpaceX Sets June Date For IPO (WSJ, May 15)

Elon Musk’s rocket company is expected to make its IPO paperwork public next week

SpaceX is aiming to go public on June 12, according to people familiar with the matter, setting the stage for what is expected to be the biggest initial public offering of all time.

Elon Musk’s rocket company is aiming to raise as much as $80 billion or more. It is expected to list on the Nasdaq, some of the people said.

At one point, advisers on the deal had expected it to debut on or around June 17, but the timing was recently accelerated, the people said. It could still change.

If it proceeds as planned, SpaceX’s debut will come soon after artificial-intelligence chip maker Cerebras Systems’ splashy IPO this week that raised around $5.6 billion. Its shares closed up 68% on its first day of trading Thursday, underscoring the ravenous investor demand for AI-related offerings.

For a June 12 debut, SpaceX would likely need to make its IPO paperwork public by the middle of next week. Investors have been eager to pore over the details, which will include financial statements, details of SpaceX’s various businesses -- including the recently added xAI artificial-intelligence business -- and the ownership structure.

Reuters earlier reported on SpaceX’s planned timing and noted it is expected to trade under the ticker “SPCX.”

SpaceX Holders Sign Off on 5-for-1 Stock Split Ahead of IPO (BBG, May 15)

SpaceX notified investors that it is executing a 5-for-1 stock split, a move that will reduce the price investors will pay for each share offered in its impending initial public offering.

The stock split will be processed the week of May 18 and is expected to be completed by May 22, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

A timely read:

My friend J.C. Parets wrote an excellent post this week, which I recommended reading (link is here).

Looking ahead…

A Critical Market Update:

This will be one of our most important reports as we move to the end of Q2/Q3.

✅ Preparing for a major change.

✅ Assessing significant and timely risks — every day will count from here on out.

Stay nimble and open-minded here.

A lot can go right, but the growing concern… is that a lot could go wrong.

Discipline and hard work will determine if you feel a mild rain, or a Category 5 hurricane.

The ability to ADAPT, and make incremental PRUDENT decisions, will compound massively from here.

Get ready.

CORE MODELS & SIGNALS

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I don’t like being overly concerned in a Bull market.

Nevertheless:

I am an evidence-based investor.

When the facts change, I change my mind.

And when the market tells me “something is wrong”, I *listen*.

This may be one of those moments:

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“Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.”

— George Soros

I have long believed consistent Investing is equal parts:

• Focus on the Best opportunities in Markets (a strong OFFENSE).

• Avoid crowded/classic Traps (a strong DEFENSE).

For me, Defense gets the edge:

• Protecting against losses is more important.

• “The deeper the hole, the harder it is to climb out…” (a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to recover, for example).

As Bear Bryant once said, “Offense wins games… but Defense wins championships.”

In today’s edition, we’ll discuss the BEST & WORST on my screens:

✅ TEAM OFFENSE: The Best charts I’m watching right now (and where I am migrating capital into NEW trends).

✅ TEAM DEFENSE: The biggest RISKS I’m seeing (and where volatility is likely to INCREASE).

It’s been a strong year for opportunistic, global investing — and this may be another important moment.

Dispersion may soon get *massive* again.

Let’s get into it:

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“There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.”

— Paul Tudor Jones

Paul Tudor Jones needs no introduction.

A brief, must-watch video of his CNBC interview this week: [LINK]

Partial Transcript:

PTJ: If I had to pick a period, we’ve got another year or two to run. And that’s my second favorite one, which is again we continue to feel like ‘99. If you look at multiples and earnings, we’re kind of where we were in October-November 1999. Whether you’re looking at the productivity miracle, and you want to look at it that way, where we’ve got another two years to run and 40% to go, or price analogs feel more like we’re back to fourth quarter ‘99, you’ve got another ramp to go. You got more runway.

Becky: What happens after that?

PTJ: It’s going to be crazy.

Paul’s comments share many similarities with our core framework:

Today, we’ll present a series of special charts — continuing our work on the BIG Market Cycle.

Where is the market heading?

We uncover FASCINATING analogs and historic parallels, including some new ideas picked up from PTJ this week…

There’s no training for this kind of market.

I think Paul is right — it’s going to get crazy.

In some ways, it already is.

So let’s look through history and our signals…

And let’s build a framework for what could be ahead.

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No one is prepared for what’s next — so let’s prepare.

Everything is coming together into this moment.

Get ready…

(*If you’re new to our work, this report could set the tone for everything that’s coming ahead. Take a look… it will be worth your time.)

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Good morning.

Markets are at an important juncture, and showing initial reactions.

Signals are fully aligned — and now in motion:

PORTFOLIO UPDATE

TOP PRIORITIES & OBJECTIVES:

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Good morning.

A critical day ahead:

The Fed will announce its latest decision & analysis.

Megacap Tech stocks AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT report after the close. How they guide expectations regarding CAPEX will be key to market momentum.

Everything is coming together into this one moment.

Already, key markets & signals are aligning as discussed — and we are watching these very closely:

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We have a LOT of important data to discuss today…

Let’s get right into it:

✅ I think this week will be THE most critical juncture of the year.

✅ Everything is coming together into this ONE moment.

✅ Some extremely compelling signals are building.

Time to “Go Big or Go Home”.

(*If you’re new to our work, this report could set the tone for everything that’s coming ahead. Take a look… it will be worth your time.)

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A week for the history books:

✅ “Since 1928, this is the first time the S&P has made new all-time highs in 11 days or fewer after falling 5-10%.” (Bespoke Investment Group).

✅ “One of the most powerful rallies since World War II.” (Bloomberg)

✅ Stocks took just 11 days to spike from oversold to overbought — the second fastest rally in history, only surpassed by August 1982:

One of the most powerful moves in history:

Since bottoming 13 days ago, the NASDAQ has rallied +18%:

In the NASDAQ’s 55-year history, this strength was extremely rare:

✅ It launched four Bear Market rallies in 2000-2001.

✅ It launched seven Major Bull Markets, and one Bull Market extension:

• 1974 Major Bull Market

• 1982 Major Bull Market

• 1991 Major Bull Market

• 1992 Bull Market extension

• 1998 Major Bull Market

• 2002 Major Bull Market

• 2009 Major Bull Market

• 2020 Major Bull Market

What will history say, if we look back 12-24 months from now?

Are you ready for all possibilities?

On the initial ceasefire announcement, we discussed “the HARD trade”:

Scanning big accounts on X last night, we noticed a chorus of experts saying the ceasefire will fail, the two sides are too far apart, the technicalities of reopening will be difficult to navigate.

These opinions show knee-jerk bearishness — and make me think the HARD TRADE here is to listen to the market, and let it decide where it wants to go. (“When all the experts agree, something else is going to happen.”)

Old subscribers will recall this is how we approached the post-April 2025 recovery — we rolled up our sleeves and looked for opportunities. Damn the torpedoes…

This is the hardest trade to make here.

Maybe it’s the right move.

Did anyone think stocks would be at all-time highs in 11 days?

No, and THIS IS WHY we follow price.

“Have a plan, and follow it — always.”

In today’s report:

✅ What are markets saying — and what could be ahead?

✅ Evaluating potential trajectories, and what we know so far.

✅ Froth is returning — time for a pullback?

As always:

Listen to what stocks are doing, not what pundits think they should be doing.

Have an *actionable* investment plan, and work on it daily.

Onwards and upwards — have a nice weekend.

Good luck to all this week.

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