APPETITE FOR DISTRIBUTION.

“Wall Street Never Changes…”

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“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.”

— Jesse Livermore

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The biggest IPO wave in history is here:

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Cerebras Disrupted Chips — and Maybe The Future of IPOs (BBG, May 15)

• Cerebras Systems’ initial public offering was a success, with the stock closing its first day at $311, 159% higher than the initial price point.

• Cerebras has decided to allow share sales based on 11 triggers over the opening six months of trading, with some selling allowed almost immediately, in an effort to manage expectations around new shares hitting the market.

Just as Cerebras is shaking up chip design, it’s also taking a new approach to post-IPO liquidity. Typically, insiders and private investors agree to wait for six months before selling their shares after an IPO. Cerebras, though, has decided to greenlight share sales based on 11 triggers over the opening six months of trading, with some selling allowed almost immediately. Only about 15% of shares outstanding were sold in the offering. Before the six months are out, another 78% of shares will become eligible for sale. Among the sale triggers: first-quarter earnings likely in June, second-quarter earnings, and then a series of dates set two weeks apart starting in late August.

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S&P Dow Jones Indices, May 15:

*S&P DJI CITES FAST TRACK IPO ENTRY ON CEREBRAS

*S&P DJI: CEREBRAS ELIGIBLE TO BE ADDED TO INDEXES ON MONDAY

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SpaceX Sets June Date For IPO (WSJ, May 15)

Elon Musk’s rocket company is expected to make its IPO paperwork public next week

SpaceX is aiming to go public on June 12, according to people familiar with the matter, setting the stage for what is expected to be the biggest initial public offering of all time.

Elon Musk’s rocket company is aiming to raise as much as $80 billion or more. It is expected to list on the Nasdaq, some of the people said.

At one point, advisers on the deal had expected it to debut on or around June 17, but the timing was recently accelerated, the people said. It could still change.

If it proceeds as planned, SpaceX’s debut will come soon after artificial-intelligence chip maker Cerebras Systems’ splashy IPO this week that raised around $5.6 billion. Its shares closed up 68% on its first day of trading Thursday, underscoring the ravenous investor demand for AI-related offerings.

For a June 12 debut, SpaceX would likely need to make its IPO paperwork public by the middle of next week. Investors have been eager to pore over the details, which will include financial statements, details of SpaceX’s various businesses -- including the recently added xAI artificial-intelligence business -- and the ownership structure.

Reuters earlier reported on SpaceX’s planned timing and noted it is expected to trade under the ticker “SPCX.”

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SpaceX Holders Sign Off on 5-for-1 Stock Split Ahead of IPO (BBG, May 15)

SpaceX notified investors that it is executing a 5-for-1 stock split, a move that will reduce the price investors will pay for each share offered in its impending initial public offering.

The stock split will be processed the week of May 18 and is expected to be completed by May 22, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

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A timely read:

My friend J.C. Parets wrote an excellent post this week, which I recommended reading (link is here).

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Looking ahead…

A Critical Market Update:

This will be one of our most important reports as we move to the end of Q2/Q3.

✅ Preparing for a major change.

✅ Assessing significant and timely risks — every day will count from here on out.

Stay nimble and open-minded here.

A lot can go right, but the growing concern… is that a lot could go wrong.

Discipline and hard work will determine if you feel a mild rain, or a Category 5 hurricane.

The ability to ADAPT, and make incremental PRUDENT decisions, will compound massively from here.

Get ready.

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CORE MODELS & SIGNALS