Be Liquid When Others Are Illiquid.

More Concerns, Risks & Volatility, Signals to Watch, and more.

Wish there were better news…

🔴 Oil just had its biggest weekly gain in history, and closed above $90.

🔴 Despite Oil going up every day this week, as we scanned financial media the knee-jerk reaction was ‘this ends soon’, ‘sell Oil’, ‘buy Stocks’.

It would be great if this ends soon.

No doubt it would be the best scenario for the world…

Alternatively:

🔴 In the low-but-increasing probability this does NOT end soon, then risks become NON-LINEAR:

🔴 Liquidity is deteriorating across the board (globally).

🔴 Positions still show a high degree of leverage.

🔴 Leaders are failing, volatility is rising, crowded markets are vulnerable.

In this environment:

🔴 We came into the week cautious, and have maintained a cautious stance for a few weeks now, right before this started.

🔴 We remain cautious for now, looking for specific and clear signals (*which we’ll discuss today).

🔴 Liquidity rules: we continue to look for windows to reduce gross, raise cash, and add hedges. SPY’s bounce to $681 on Thursday was a timely Sell/Hedge opportunity, as discussed in real-time. We’ll see if there are more.

🔴 Friday may have been the start of a breakdown in stocks. Either way, we await the market’s decision — possibly soon.

As always:

We will continue to move incrementally, carefully, and methodically.

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What’s next?

This is the tightest range for this point of the year in the history of the S&P (going back to 1928), and tighter than any Dow range going back to 1896:

Which way will it break?

In times like these, I remember this quote from a market legend:

“You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next in order to make money.” — Mark Douglas

Whatever comes next:

We will adapt, evaluate risks, and look for new opportunities.

We’ve been fortunate to have a phenomenal start to 2026, and I want to protect and build on these gains.

But we will ONLY act when the risk/reward is most favorable.

No opinions or expectations.

All decisions calculated and planned, in advance.

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In this report:

✅ Markets are absorbing multiple shocks, and Oil/geopolitics may be just ONE of many concerns going forward.

✅ A comprehensive, detailed list of what we’re seeing.

✅ A clear and ACTIONABLE plan for what we’ll be doing next.

I think experience and patience can truly shine here.

There’s a lot to discuss, so let’s begin: