Key Charts: Equities and BTC.

Plus — Important Signals and Updated Commentary.

Good morning.

The week has only just begun, and already there’s a lot to discuss.

In the weekend report, I wrote:

Any hesitation in S&P next week would open *slightly* lower targets near ~6500. Important to clarify — this is not our base case. IF it happens, all our Core signals would quickly reach “strong Buy” levels. So we remain constructive for now, waiting for the market’s decision.

Markets are moving quickly, and with heightened volatility.

In today’s update, I want to focus on critical signals we are monitoring for Equities and BTC:

Bitcoin is in a full-blown technical and sentiment capitulation—

• We’ll look through BTC’s history, and paint a picture for how this could resolve near-term. The signals merit a close study at this time…

Stocks are at an important juncture—

• Thematic Longs are still holding reasonably well, all things considered.

• Low-quality stocks have been destroyed (as expected), while the core market and big names continue to hold up (for now, this remains in line with expectations).

• NVDA’s earnings after the market close on November 19 will likely have a significant impact on big Tech and core indexes. Residual declines would accelerate potential bottoms in Core Model signals, putting us on high alert.

• Alternatively, if NVDA’s results are ok, stocks could breathe a collective sigh of relief — particularly infrastructure names, which are showing tentative signs of stabilization / improvement (a potential leading indicator).

Let’s get to it…

Starting with the main story today — then moving to Equities, and key signals we’re watching there:

*Even if you don’t own/trade BTC, we recommend watching this space closely for context on liquidity & risk appetite moving forward.

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Bitcoin: A Technical & Sentiment Capitulation