Macro Charts

Macro Charts

Market Update: Everything You Need To Know.

Updated Commentary, Key Levels, and more.

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Macro Charts
Mar 13, 2026
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Good morning.

Hope everyone had a nice week despite all the volatility.

These are extremely challenging market conditions, make no mistake—

It hasn’t been easy, but we continue to hold defensively for now, and waiting for the dust to settle.

Thursday was a good outperformance day, with the equity book up nearly +3% (including hedges), and SPY down -1.5%.

Energy and Chemicals remain a key portfolio pillar, which goes to show the power of following trends and signals.

Critically, momentum still looks strong in these groups, and some stocks look like they’re just beginning to join the rally.

I’m extremely proud of the hard work we’ve done so far.

March has been the outcome of many incremental “smart” decisions:

1. We protected YTD gains throughout this period, sidestepping most of the current market volatility.

2. This week’s moves pushed the portfolio to a new YTD high, now in high double-digit return (Thursday’s close).

3. The maximum YTD drawdown was 3% so far, a solid return-to-risk ratio to start the year.

4. Portfolio beta and realized volatility remain extremely low, and we continue to wait to deploy cash into new opportunities. I think we’ll see many soon.

There’s a LOT of hard work to be done in the next few days:

We need to stay *laser-focused* on how this volatility ends, and when to get constructive again.

I think experience and patience can truly shine here.

When the turn comes, I want to be ready.

Good luck out there — and have a nice weekend.


In this report:

✅ Thoughts & Commentary on Market Conditions.

✅ Updated ACTIONABLE Plan.

✅ Main Signals we’re Watching.

Let’s begin:

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