NOT EVEN CLOSE

Thoughts on Bitcoin, Crypto and ANIMAL SPIRITS!

One look through Twitter yesterday is all you need to know…

• Bitcoin worth more than Silver!

• Doge worth more than XYZ Stock!

You think this is a Bubble?

Good luck with that.

Compared to history, this *doesn’t even come close* to prior Tops in Crypto...

Want to know what a REAL milestone looks like?

• How about in 2011, when GLD (the Gold ETF) briefly became the largest ETF in the world, beating SPY in market cap? That was the EXACT DAY Gold topped after a historic twelve-YEAR rally. Gold then fell nearly 50% and took a decade to recover.

• Or a more recent example: when NVDA became the largest company in the world? (And it hasn’t gone anywhere since — meanwhile everything else is in a raging Bull Market.)

Want to imagine REAL and *potentially achievable* milestones for Bitcoin and Crypto?

• How about if the largest Bitcoin ETF eventually becomes the largest ETF in the world (bigger than SPY)?

• Or if Bitcoin’s total size exceeds the largest market cap Stock in the world?

• It’s a Bull Market… be ready for anything.

Meanwhile:

• More than three weeks before the Election (when Bitcoin was still <60k), Crypto Momentum began to expand on all time frames for the majority of Coins and related Crypto Stocks.

• We flagged this Momentum shift with significant interest — particularly here and here — culminating on October 29, in “Things Are About To Get Crazy... (Again)”, where I proposed a detailed framework for the resurgence in Animal Spirits that is now underway.

• Since then, pick a name — everything is up +40% to +100%.

• Crypto Sentiment and Flows were low after Markets spent most of the year in a consolidation — and yet even today they’re NOT extreme by any means, compared to prior historical Tops.

Even more Bullish, Momentum is still accelerating in a CLASSIC INITIATION pattern, and isn’t even close to the overbought levels seen at prior historical Tops…

(Long way to go until this becomes another Bubble.)

Meanwhile there are Trillions in capital just waking up to what’s happening…

YES there will be BIG shakeouts along the way.

(We’ll track them as opportunities to adjust exposure along the way.)

As I wrote before: expect the noise level to go “to the moon”.

But the BIG winners will ignore the noise and follow the Trend.

And all signals still strongly suggest this one’s just getting started...

Good luck.

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Onwards and upwards, -MC

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