SHORT NOTES: 1/16/2026

Commodities, China, Tech Earnings, and Expectations.

1. (BN) Metals Sink as China Exchange Told to Rip Out High-Speed Servers

• Metals fell at the end of a dramatic week, as news of a Chinese clampdown on high-frequency trading cooled sentiment after frenzied activity in mainland futures that fueled global price gains.

• Regulators have ordered bourses to remove servers operated by high-frequency traders from their data centers, according to people familiar with the matter, with copper, zinc and aluminum all falling in Shanghai and on the London Metal Exchange.

Link to article

Recent SHFE volumes “smashed records”, according to Bloomberg News (see chart below):

*Added Shanghai Copper price to the chart, to visualize prior spikes in context.

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2. Big Tech: US vs. China.

“Earnings growth for a gauge of China’s tech megacaps is poised for a major inflection point in 2026 when it’s expected to overtake Magnificent 7 for the first time since 2022, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.”

Could China Tech outperform U.S. Tech this year?

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3. In the U.S.:

• Companies are issuing the best guidance since 2021, with “no downward revisions”

• Tech/MAG7 earnings are forecast to grow 20%, driving >90% of S&P growth

• Ex-Tech, growth “slated to decelerate from 9% to 1% year-over-year”

Is the bar so low, that earnings *outside* of Tech can surprise to the upside?

*Has the Russell 2000 been saying this all along…?

How far can this run?

We’ll explore these ideas in the next report — coming soon.

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Thanks for reading.

Onwards and upwards, -MC

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